We tried to imagine the most likely race patterns at the Wollongong circuit (final attack, sprint or breakaway) and the riders that any of these scenarios would involve.
Coaches and cyclists are struggling to imagine a standard race pattern for the men’s road race at the World Cycling Championships on Sunday (starting at 2:15am French time), even though the first reconnaissance will give an idea of what awaits them. Summarizing all the eventualities considered in the staffs of the national teams, we have brought out the three most possible scenarios with, for each one, the riders (among our main favorites) likely to make the most of it.
Attack on the last bump
This is the scenario that stands out most of the strategies considered in the teams. That of an offensive as late as possible, like during Friday’s Espoirs event on the penultimate pass of Mount Pleasant. For many, a handful of seconds before leaning towards the end should be enough and in this game they are some of the best strikers to be able to take advantage of that.
Possible actors: Alaphilippe; Van Aert (BEL); Pogacar (SLV); Van der Poel (HOL); Cosnefroy.
small committee sprint
No one is considering a massive sprint but the possibility of a small group passing at the top of the last difficulty is not ruled out. Some bet on this scenario because it offers possibilities to punchers who also have enough burst of speed to make the difference in the final stretch.
Possible actors: Van Aert (BEL); Matthews (Australia); Girmay (ERY); The door.
An outsider named Girmay
long term exhaust
The least likely scenario because the repetition of Mount Pleasant may make some think before embarking on a long getaway. There are too many unknowns but anything is possible for daring runners, who will also benefit from not waiting for the last step or a too random sprint.
Possible actors: Evenepoel (BEL); bethiol (TA); Van der Poel (HOL); Pogacar (SLV); Maduas.