In this new weekend crypto update, it is time to take stock of the month of September, which was quite violent in the financial markets. While the dollar gains strength and the FED maintains a restrictive monetary policy, the American indices are falling apart. As the cryptocurrency market is correlated, it has also taken a bearish direction. Difficult period for risk assets. What to keep in mind for the month of October? In this analysis you will discover the key levels to watch in the coming weeks, plus you will have an update on the situation of Ethereum in the face of Bitcoina couple to imperatively watch in the current market environment.
This market analysis is presented in collaboration with CryptoTrader™ and its algorithmic trading solution finally accessible to individuals.
A bullish rally for the monthly closing thanks to Bitcoin and Ethereum?
Failing to recover resistance at 943 billion, the market took a bearish direction. In fact, the announced target of 845 billion in the previous analysis has almost been validated. The current level to watch is $919 billion. Let’s see if the market makes a new higher high and breaks free. In this context, the resistance to 943 billion will always be the first objective to take into account. Also, the MA100 (a good indicator of the trend) is in confluence with this technical level (as well as the EMA200 which is close to it).
If the market manages to move forward in the fourth half as agreed, why not consider a yield on the MA100 which currently sits at $970bn? It plays a not insignificant role and could act as a resistance. Also, you can see that the MA25 and the MA32 are converging with the resistance at 943. This once again confirms the importance, for the market, of recovering this level.
Altcoins ready to push higher?
Altcoins have once again returned to the all-time high of 2017, a level where a reaction has occurred on several occasions. The trend is currently down, altcoins are under resistance at $375/378 billion. There is a horizontal level and the MA100. At the moment, impossible to get rid of him in H4. Let’s see if the altcoins can do well and retake the 200 to 380 billion EMA. If they get there, a small rally to $388 billion may occur.
The 395 billion is possible if conditions are favorable to the expansion of the latter. For now, it is best to maintain a bearish bias as long as we are trading below current levels. In the short term, altcoins are holding on to the EMA of 25/13/32. A drop below 370 billion with a bearish break of the 3 EMA could be an opportunity to sell. The logical objective will be the minimum of September 21. If the 358 billion is released, the 346 billion dollars is not an insane level to consider. Of course, if Ethereum and Bitcoin manage to go higher, this will allow for a bullish push context by this end of the month. Depending on the evolution of this capitalization, we can reinforce the bullish or bearish bias on very specific assets.
Is Bitcoin Pausing Its Dominance Drive?
On two occasions, Bitcoin failed to maintain dominance above 41.32%. It is a great technical threshold that, formerly, was a support. As long as the asset fails to get rid of it, it is useless to imagine further bullish momentum towards the MA100 and EMA 200, as well as the blue zone at 43.20%. At the moment, bitcoin dominance has missed a technical threshold at 40.60/40.70%. If he manages to recover it, we can consider another attempt to break 41.32%, this would allow the king of cryptocurrencies to leave Ethereum and altcoins on the sidelines and set the pace for the market.
However, if it fails, we can also consider a range period. The objective is to maintain the previous minimum, which is at 40.04%. This will prevent a trend reversal and give bitcoin a chance to regain strength during the month of October. At the same time, it would be a favorable environment to see some rises in altcoins and Ethereum. Dominance is a very interesting indicator of the path that capital takes within the market. This allows you to have a good view of market conditions.
Ethereum continues to lose steam
Our scenario from last weekend took shape on the Ethereum/Bitcoin pair. Having lost 0.073 BTC, a new bearish test on H4 allowed to extend the bearish momentum. As of now, Ethereum is at the confluence of EMA200 and MA100. These have not been broken down since mid-July. Currently, the price is in a bearish setup, but we can expect a bounce in the coming days. Truth be told, buyers have to defend themselves here. If there is no bounce back to 0.073 BTC and Ethereum breaks lower from current levels, a return to 0.065 BTC will be inevitable.
This pair is important, it allows you to determine the asset that primarily influences the cryptocurrency market. If Ethereum continues to slide lower, altcoins are likely to do very poorly. Coupled with a rebound in Bitcoin dominance, this would demonstrate capital rotation towards the king of cryptocurrencies. Could it be the anticipation of a new fall by market players? Potentially. However, we are not there yet, although a bearish bias needs to be preserved. Ethereum is therefore at a key moment against Bitcoin. Keep an eye on the identified levels so you don’t get caught up in the market.
Shitty coins are doing it wrong
Analysis of the FTX Shitcoin Index, at the end of August, was confirmed with a return to the pivot zone at $2314. At the moment, the trend has not changed. Therefore, we should preserve a bearish bias on bullshit coins for the time being. If the index is made to lose the pivot zone, it will certainly return to its HNV which is in confluence with the VAL (2170/2205 dollars). We will have to see the reaction of the index at this level. If it takes to break it, we will probably witness an acceleration to the downside to the 1966 dollars.
This index is a good way to get exposure to the downside in this sector of the ecosystem without risking selecting a bullshit coin that could perform an unexpected pump. To witness a bullish return of this index, you will need to recover the $2,500 registering a top higher than the previous one, this will allow you to stay above the MA100 in confluence with the EMA13, 25 and 32 under which it evolved.
Here is the end of this crypto point of the weekend. So, do you prefer to go for a bullish or bearish position? The trend is clearly bearish but therefore a bullish push to retest certain resistances should not be ruled out. The dominance of bitcoin has calmed its bullish impulses, it is defeated at 41.32%. Its evolution is important since it determines where the capital goes in the market. At the same time, we have an Ethereum that is losing steam to the king of cryptocurrencies. A continuation of the decline will be a bad sign for the latter as well as altcoins which could see a decline very quickly. Note that risky assets are still on the sidelines. More than ever, you must have irreproachable risk management when intervening in the financial markets.
Is it possible to be a winner every time? Whether the Bitcoin price is in good shape or going through turmoil, CryptoTrader™ allows you to increase your chances of success through your 100% automated algorithmic trading tool.