Budget 2023 “Security”: the accounts recover

The accounts of our welfare state continue to recover at a sustained rate. In 2023, the Social Security deficit should be reduced to 6.8 billion euros, compared to almost 24.3 billion in 2021 and 17.8 billion this year. These figures, which take into account the whole of the general regime and the old-age solidarity fund, clearly improve, due, in particular, to the good performance of the labor market and salary increases, which have boosted income from security contributions Social. . This is one of the main lessons of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS), which was to be presented on Monday, September 26, to the Council of Ministers.

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The improvement is spectacular for health insurance. In 2020, this branch was in the red for a value of 30,500 million euros, due to the expenses induced by the health crisis and the loss of income linked to the economic recession that had occurred at that time. Three years later, the deficit should be divided almost by five, reaching 6,500 million euros. A trend attributable in particular to the dynamism of the contributions paid by active workers and by employers. The absorption of the “hole” also results from the decrease in “crisis spending”, to deal with the Covid-19 epidemic.

Old age insurance in red

After approaching the break-even point in 2021, the old-age insurance branch should sink back into the red, with -3.5 billion in 2023. The deterioration should continue and increase, with financing needs estimated at around 16 billion euros in 2026. To explain such evolution, the government proposes “demographic effects of aging” of the population, which translates into a “increased generation size” going to retirement, therefore, by an increase in the cost of pensions. Budget difficulties are likely to increase considerably for the fund of agents working in public hospitals and local authorities.

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Not in vain, the national objective for spending on health insurance (Ondam) should continue to increase in 2023: the PLFSS establishes this increase at 3.7% excluding spending linked to the health crisis, that is, an additional 8,600 million euros at a constant scope compared to 2022, and 53,000 million euros since 2017. Due to the drop in spending related to Covid-19, throughout the area, the variation would, however, be -0.8% compared to the rectified Ondam 2022 . As a reminder, the increase in the national target, in 2022, excluding spending linked to the health crisis, was 5.4%.

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